Affirm vs Sezzle

10-K Financial Filing Analysis for Affirm (2026-08-27)

Affirm Holdings, Inc. filed its Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026, highlighting sustained GMV growth and operational expansion across its Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) network. During fiscal year 2026, Affirm facilitated $50.2 billion in Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV), supported by an active merchant base of approximately 571,000 and strong consumer engagement averaging 7.0 transactions per active consumer (up 20% YoY). The platform demonstrated high consumer retention, with repeat consumers driving 96% of facilitated transactions. The report emphasizes Affirm's multi-channel distribution strategy, proprietary transaction-level machine learning underwriting, and capital funding diversification across warehouse facilities, securitizations, and forward-flow partnerships. Additionally, Affirm highlighted key strategic growth initiatives including international expansion into the U.K., Canada, and Australia, as well as the rollout of generative AI capabilities (AdaptAI) and direct app-embedded financing (Affirm Edge), while addressing ongoing regulatory scrutiny in BNPL credit frameworks across multiple jurisdictions.

• Facilitated total Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) of $50.2 billion during the fiscal year ended June 30, 2026.
• Active merchant network expanded to approximately 571 thousand merchants as of June 30, 2026.
• Consumer engagement reached approximately 7.0 transactions per active consumer as of June 30, 2026 (a 20% increase YoY), with repeat consumers accounting for 96% of total platform transactions.

Affirm's AI Transformer Improves Underwriting for No-FICO Applicants

Affirm has deployed a new AI underwriting model, a transformer, at U.S. checkout. According to its engineering blog, the model achieves its largest gains—a 3.4% increase in completed purchases—among applicants with no FICO score. The improvement is driven primarily by Affirm's own repayment data, not new data sources. The headline result came from a narrower test than the press release suggests, focusing on applicants without a FICO score. The model integrates with Affirm's existing XGBoost stack. This development highlights the growing role of alternative data and AI in credit underwriting, potentially reshaping how lenders assess creditworthiness beyond traditional credit scoring.

• Affirm launched a new AI underwriting model using a transformer architecture.
• The model is live at U.S. checkout.
• The largest gains are seen among applicants with no FICO score.

Wolfe Upgrades Affirm to Outperform, Cites Structural Growth

Wolfe Research upgraded Affirm Holdings to outperform from peer perform, citing a compelling valuation after the stock slid about 8% since its fiscal Q4 earnings. Analyst Darrin Peller set a price target of $90, implying 26% upside. He highlighted Affirm's strong execution, market share gains, Affirm Card momentum, strong 0% APR trends, and opportunities in international expansion and vertical diversification. Peller also noted growth drivers like Affirm Edge and agentic commerce. The call aligns with Wall Street consensus, as 29 of 37 analysts rate the stock buy or strong buy.

• Wolfe Research upgraded Affirm to outperform from peer perform.
• Price target of $90 implies 26% upside from Friday's close.
• Affirm shares have slid roughly 8% since Aug. 27 earnings report.

Investor Presentation Released: Sezzle

AI parsed presentation narrative: Sezzle is leveraging its proprietary AI-driven underwriting and high consumer engagement to transition from a pure-play BNPL provider into a comprehensive financial services ecosystem. Management's central thesis focuses on driving profitable growth through innovative products like SezzleCash and Sezzle Send while maintaining superior unit economics and a high return on equity. Key tailwinds mentioned: BNPL Market Expansion, Digital Wallet Integration.