Observed Signal · Sep 5, 2026 · Analysis · Source: Noahpinion · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Positive
US still leading China in AI race, says economist
An analysis by economist Noah Smith argues that the US continues to lead China in AI capabilities, citing better models, more compute, and higher revenue, despite recent Chinese model releases. The article highlights Z.ai's open-source GLM-5.3 model, which nearly matched Anthropic's Mythos 5 in a cybersecurity test, but notes that Mythos is not America's best model, as Anthropic has unreleased internal models. The piece discusses the military and cybersecurity implications of the AI race and warns that US policy, such as restricting Chinese AI talent, could jeopardize the lead. It also touches on the need for safety cooperation and the risks of AI agent swarm attacks.
Analysis of US-China AI race with competitive insights, relevant for AI-driven marketing and technology.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Z.ai's open-source GLM-5.3 model scored 84.5% on CyberGym, slightly higher than Anthropic's Mythos 5 at 83.8%.
- Anthropic's Mythos 5 outperformed GLM-5.3 on ExploitBench (78.0% vs 54.4%).
- Anthropic delayed Mythos release due to cybersecurity concerns and has internal models that are better.
- China's Moonshot released Kimi K3 in July 2026, and Z.ai released GLM-5.3 in August 2026.
- US companies have better models, more compute, and more revenue in AI compared to China.
Connected Companies & Entities
4 Entities mapped“Anthropic's famous Mythos model and its internal models; Anthropic delayed release due to cybersecurity concerns....”
“Chinese AI startup Z.ai released open-source GLM-5.3 model; scored close to Mythos 5 on cyber tests....”
“Chinese AI startup Z.ai released open-source GLM-5.3 model; scored close to Mythos 5 on cyber tests....”
“Moonshot's Kimi K3 model released in July 2026....”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
China Gains Ground in AI, U.S. Keeps Advantage
Chinese AI capabilities and global adoption are rising: companies in China are closing performance gaps with U.S. frontier labs and Chinese open models are widely available for download and self-hosting. Beijing-based firms such as Moonshot have released models that benchmark closer to Anthropic and OpenAI, and experts say Chinese models are becoming cheaper alternatives for many use cases and gaining traction in developing countries. However, U.S. firms retain major advantages — especially access to leading-edge compute, private capital, and talent — and U.S. export controls on advanced chips limit Chinese progress on training and inference. The article frames the competition as ongoing and geopolitical, with implications for deployment, standards, and market access.
Chinese Open-Weight Model Challenges US AI Lead
Gary Marcus argues that recent Chinese model releases — notably Moonshot.AI's Kimi K3 and Z.ai's GLM 5.2, along with Alibaba's Qwen — indicate China has largely caught up to top US AI models. Kimi K3 is described as an 'open-weight' model available for local download, which threatens the business models and potential IPOs of major US AI labs like OpenAI and Anthropic. Marcus outlines seven policy/strategy options for the U.S., ranging from doing nothing to nationalizing labs or pushing for an international 'CERN for AI' to make AI a global public good. He urges congressional investigation into how the U.S. lead was lost and debates potential regulatory or trade responses.
Stanford: China Nearly Erases US AI Lead
The Stanford AI Index Report 2026 (HAI) finds the United States has nearly lost its multi-year lead in artificial intelligence as China closes the gap across model performance, patents, infrastructure and talent. Arena-Scores show the US top model (Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.6 in March 2026) is only 2.7% ahead of China’s Dola-Seed 2.0, and the US still counts 50 top models versus China’s 30. China accounted for over 74% of global AI patent grants in 2024, installed roughly nine times more industrial robots than the US, and is adding large power capacity for data centers. Stanford also reports a sharp decline in AI researchers migrating to the US (an 89% drop since 2017, with an 80% acceleration last year). The report notes the US retains a private-investment lead ($285.9B in 2025 vs China’s $12.4B) but warns infrastructure, energy and talent trends may determine long-term leadership.
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