Observed Signal · Aug 25, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: CNBC Investing · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Stocks That Move With Nvidia Earnings and Those That Don't
CNBC Pro analyzed how other stocks historically react to Nvidia's quarterly earnings, screening earnings-reaction days back to 2016. The analysis created a “sympathy” basket (stocks that tend to move with Nvidia) and an “anti-Nvidia” basket (stocks that tend to move opposite Nvidia) using criteria including minimum observations, correlation, beta and market-cap thresholds. Semiconductor and AI-infrastructure related firms dominated the sympathy list (e.g., AMD, Vertiv, Marvell), while defensive and non-tech names (e.g., Pfizer, McDonald’s, Newmont) populated the inverse group. CNBC noted Wall Street estimates for Nvidia’s fiscal Q2 (adjusted EPS $2.10; revenue $92.18 billion per LSEG) and that options market pricing implies roughly a 5% move post-release. The piece stresses these correlations likely reflect broader market rotations rather than direct causal links from Nvidia earnings.
Nvidia earnings are a major market event with read-through effects across semiconductor and AI-infrastructure companies; the report and expected move can influence market rotation between growth/AI names and defensive/value sectors.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- CNBC Pro screened earnings-reaction days going back to 2016 to measure stock correlation, beta and same-direction frequency relative to Nvidia.
- Sympathy basket criteria: at least 30 observations, correlation ≥ 0.45, beta ≥ 0.1, and market cap above $2 billion.
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) showed a 0.75 correlation with Nvidia and a beta of 0.28; it moved in the same direction as Nvidia on nearly 70% of reaction days.
- Inverse (anti-Nvidia) basket included defensive names such as Pfizer (negative 0.61 correlation) and McDonald’s (negative 0.56 correlation); Newmont had a negative 0.54 correlation.
- Wall Street expectations cited: Nvidia fiscal Q2 adjusted EPS $2.10 and revenue $92.18 billion (LSEG); options market implies roughly a 5% move after the release.
Connected Companies & Entities
9 Entities mapped“Nvidia earnings have become a market event that can ripple beyond the chipmaker itself....”
“Micron, Broadcom, Synopsys and Cadence Design also appeared on the sympathy list, reinforcing how Nvidia has become a read-through for compa...”
“Micron, Broadcom, Synopsys and Cadence Design also appeared on the sympathy list, reinforcing how Nvidia has become a read-through for compa...”
“Wall Street is looking for adjusted earnings per share of $2.10 on $92.18 billion in revenue, both nearly double their levels from last year...”
“Pfizer had a negative 0.61 correlation to Nvidia and moved in the same direction as the chipmaker just 38% of the time in the reaction days ...”
“Verizon, Philip Morris, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson also ranked among the stocks that have tended to move opposite Nvidia....”
“Verizon, Philip Morris, Amgen and Johnson & Johnson also ranked among the stocks that have tended to move opposite Nvidia....”
Related Market Signals & Shifts
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How Nvidia Traded in the Last 16 Quarters
The CNBC Options Action piece analyzes how Nvidia has historically traded around earnings, showing options-implied moves have frequently overestimated actual post-earnings stock swings. Using Cboe LiveVol data, the article reports implied volatility into earnings averages 6.7% versus an average realized response of 4.6%, and that options pricing overestimated Nvidia’s post-report swing in six of the past seven quarters (14 of the past 20). Ahead of the upcoming report, implied volatility peaked at its highest since March before falling to about 5.9% as the stock slipped. The story notes pressure on Nvidia after a 34% rally from March lows and a recent trillion-dollar market-cap gain, and includes trader commentary about the high expectations and recent post‑earnings selloffs. Published May 20, 2026 by Oliver Renick.
Nvidia Rally Pressures Bulls Ahead of Earnings
Nvidia's stock has surged roughly 20% since May 5, lifting its market capitalization to about $5.7 trillion and creating heavy options-market exposure ahead of the company’s quarterly results. Reports that the U.S. cleared a small number of Chinese firms to buy Nvidia H200 AI processors — and talk of a possible U.S.-China trade reopening — helped fuel the rally. Many bullish call buyers are already in the money, concentrating large delta risk into near-term expirations ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report on May 20, 2026. Traders expect an outsized post-earnings move: implied volatility for the print is elevated relative to recent quarters. Market participants warn that significant option expiries this week could amplify price moves if the stock fails to hold gains into the close.
SpaceX Earnings Weigh on Stock; Nvidia Gains
SpaceX shares fell after the company reported second-quarter results and disclosed $18.4 billion in Q2 capital expenditures, which exceeded estimates. Nvidia shares rose more than 3% after Elon Musk said Nvidia would be SpaceX’s “exclusive” chipmaking partner for its AI infrastructure buildout. Analysts highlighted the potential scale of Nvidia demand if SpaceX’s comments are realized, with estimates discussing multi-gigawatt add-ons and large potential revenue for Nvidia in 2027. AMD also fell after reporting higher capex of $808 million in Q2. The market reaction reflects investor concern about hyperscalers' AI spending while chipmakers are rewarded for increased demand expectations.
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