Observed Signal · May 18, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: CNBC Investing · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Nvidia Earnings Beat Would Boost Market, Says Jay Woods
Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets and a long-time NYSE trader, told CNBC PRO that an earnings beat from Nvidia would be the “biggest and best tailwind” for markets this week. Nvidia is due to report earnings after Wednesday’s close; Woods noted the stock moved from roughly $165 to $235 over the prior six weeks and identified $215 as minor support and $200 as major support, with $235 acting as a recent ceiling. He also warned that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closing above 4.65% could push toward 5%, putting pressure on equities. Woods highlighted other names reporting this week, calling e.l.f. Beauty an “under-the-radar” trading opportunity that could rally to $65–$70 on strong results. The commentary was published May 18, 2026 on CNBC PRO.
Nvidia is a major technology/semi company and its earnings can materially influence broader market sentiment and investor flows; an earnings beat could drive a significant market rally.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Jay Woods is chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets and a longtime NYSE trader.
- Nvidia was due to report earnings after the market close on Wednesday of the week of May 18, 2026.
- Woods said Nvidia shares moved from about $165 to around $235 over the prior six weeks.
- Woods identified $215 as minor support, $200 as major support, and $235 as the recent ceiling for Nvidia.
- Woods warned the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaking and closing above 4.65% could make a path to 5% and pressure equities; he also cited e.l.f. Beauty as a potential $65–$70 rally candidate on good news.
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Nvidia Rally Pressures Bulls Ahead of Earnings
Nvidia's stock has surged roughly 20% since May 5, lifting its market capitalization to about $5.7 trillion and creating heavy options-market exposure ahead of the company’s quarterly results. Reports that the U.S. cleared a small number of Chinese firms to buy Nvidia H200 AI processors — and talk of a possible U.S.-China trade reopening — helped fuel the rally. Many bullish call buyers are already in the money, concentrating large delta risk into near-term expirations ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report on May 20, 2026. Traders expect an outsized post-earnings move: implied volatility for the print is elevated relative to recent quarters. Market participants warn that significant option expiries this week could amplify price moves if the stock fails to hold gains into the close.
10-Year Yield and Nvidia Are Markets' Top Assets
Moses Ventures founder Danny Moses told CNBC that the two most important assets for financial markets right now are the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield and Nvidia. His comments came ahead of Nvidia’s earnings report due after the bell, which Moses expects the company to beat and guide higher. The article notes the 10-year Treasury yield at 4.623% on Tuesday, rising concerns about U.S. fiscal health after a $432 billion monthly budget deficit in July and total government debt surpassing $40 trillion. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the department would double debt buybacks to steady long-dated yields. Nvidia shares had risen about 2% on Tuesday after a seven-day losing streak and are up roughly 14% year-to-date in 2026.
Morgan Stanley Turns More Bullish on Nvidia Ahead of Earnings
Morgan Stanley increased its bullish view on Nvidia ahead of the chipmaker’s fiscal first-quarter earnings due this week, keeping an overweight rating and raising its price target to $285 from $260. The bank lifted its estimates for the quarter ended April 30, expecting $1.72 earnings per share and $79.264 billion in revenue (up from prior estimates of $1.69 and $78.25 billion), citing surging demand for AI hardware and Nvidia’s supply commitments. Analyst Joseph Moore highlighted Nvidia’s advantage from securing supply and noted $95 billion in purchase commitments that cover planned shipments over the next 18 months. Morgan Stanley’s stance aligns with Wall Street consensus, where LSEG data shows 57 of 61 analysts rate the stock a buy or strong buy. The company is scheduled to report results on Wednesday after the market close.
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