Observed Signal · Jun 19, 2026 · Opinion Piece · Source: Noahpinion · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Negative
Noah Smith: Is Blogging Still Influential?
Noah Smith reflects on whether his writing still matters amid three trends he argues have reduced the influence of independent bloggers: rising populism that sidelines expert ideas from power, the shift to monetized direct-to-audience platforms (notably Substack) which fragments writer-to-writer conversation, and the rapid proliferation of AI-generated writing that increases noise and attention competition. Smith says blogging still matters and can influence AI training, cites examples of AI systems (Claude, GPT) referencing his work, and proposes platform-level changes (e.g., link-back/traffic notifications on Substack) to revive cross-writer dialogue. He also discusses how AI can both dilute attention and create new channels for human-authored influence.
The essay discusses platform-driven fragmentation of publishers, the rise of paid newsletters (Substack), and the proliferation of AI-generated content — trends that affect publisher monetization, audience attention, and how editorial content influences discourse and downstream AI models.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Noah Smith published the essay on his Substack on 2026-06-19.
- Smith identifies three reasons his perceived influence has declined: (1) the rise of populism in U.S. politics, (2) a shift to monetizable direct-to-audience platforms like Substack that silo writers, and (3) widespread proliferation of AI-generated writing increasing competition for readers' attention.
- Smith notes Substack has a 'Substack Live' feature and recommends a link-back/traffic notification feature to encourage cross-writer conversation.
- Smith states that AI models (he names Claude and GPT) often cite his writing and that a site called intheweights.com shows him in the top 2% of contributors (per his own remark).
- Smith reports using Pangram, an AI text detector, which flagged an example essay as about 50% AI-generated.
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Affiliate Marketers Can Increase Influence in the AI Age
The article argues that rising AI-driven zero-click search behavior has reduced organic traffic for many publishers, threatening affiliate-driven revenue that depends on trackable last-click conversions. The author — who works at Atolls — says influence now matters more than raw traffic, because community-driven recommendations and direct audience trust often drive offline or untrackable purchases. The affiliate channel is already evolving: brands are adopting hybrid deals that pay for reach and placement alongside performance, and more are measuring partners via incrementality tests rather than last-click attribution. The piece recommends that advertisers pay for influence directly, include reach/awareness budgets for community partners, and run incrementality testing to capture the true value publishers provide in an AI-shaped web.
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