Observed Signal · Sep 11, 2026 · Market Signal · Source: Flossbach von Storch · Impact: 3/5
Die Preise steigen, die Zinsen auch
Die EZB erhöht ihre Zinsen, zum zweiten Mal in diesem Jahr. Das lag auch an den steigenden Ölpreisen. Geht es auf Sicht noch weiter hoch?
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ECB expected to raise rates to 2.5% as inflation jumps
The European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% at its upcoming meeting, driven by inflation surging to 3.3% in August, well above the 2% target. Energy prices, up 14.3% year-on-year, are the primary driver, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Core inflation, excluding energy and food, stands at 2.4%. Unlike previous shocks, the economy is in decent shape, with some economists anticipating upward revisions to growth forecasts. Second-round effects on wages are a key concern, but current wage data does not indicate a spiral. Market expectations for further hikes are being pushed back by economists at ING and Generali Investments, who view this as a risk-management adjustment rather than the start of a hiking cycle. Higher bond yields are tightening financial conditions, increasing the cost of capital for startups and scale-ups.
Central Banks Likely to Raise Interest Rates
The article argues that persistent inflationary pressures make further interest-rate hikes by major central banks likely, with the ECB possibly raising rates to around 2.25% at its next meeting. It cites multiple drivers beyond oil — higher prices for inputs such as kerosene, gas, naphtha, helium and fertilisers, supply‑side damage from conflict in the Middle East, and second‑round effects from weak productivity in Europe. The piece highlights a large AI investment cycle: Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft are expected to spend roughly $700–725 billion in CAPEX for 2026, boosting demand for data centres, chips and power and adding upward price pressure. The author favors equities over long-duration bonds given higher nominal growth and warns that the Fed and some other central banks may remain too loose. The US economy’s robustness and electrification/AI-driven commodity demand (copper, silver, uranium) are also emphasised.
Wirtschaftsausblick 2026 – Inflation, Zinsen, Kapitalmärkte
Trotz geopolitischer Spannungen wächst die Weltwirtschaft weiter. Inflation, Zinspolitik sowie die Entwicklung an den Anleihemärkten prägen den Ausblick für Anleger und die Wirtschaft 2026. Ein Kommentar von Chefvolkswirt Carsten Mumm.
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