Observed Signal · Sep 10, 2026 · Market Signal · Source: Numerator · Impact: 3.5/5
Numerator Consumer Goods Price Index: Inflation Decelerating, Prices Up 2.2% vs. 2025
Consumers Still Feeling Impact: Concern About Rising Prices Hits Record High
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US consumer confidence hits 12-year low on inflation fears
US consumer confidence fell to a 12-year low in September 2026, according to the Conference Board, driven by rising fuel prices, higher borrowing costs, and job anxiety. The confidence index dropped 6.7 points to 81.8 from 88.6 in August. Consumers' median inflation expectations for the next 12 months rose to 5.1%, and the share of households expecting higher interest rates surged to 68.4%. New York Fed President John Williams indicated no immediate need for another rate hike, predicting inflation will slow to just above 2% next year and hit the 2% target only by 2028. The survey aligns with the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, which also fell to a four-month low. This economic downturn signals reduced consumer spending, which could impact retail and advertising sectors.
Consumer Confidence Falls Amid Rising Inflation Expectations
Consumer confidence declined for a second straight month in August as Americans grew more pessimistic about jobs, incomes and business conditions, The Conference Board reported. The consumer confidence index fell to 89.4 from 90.2 in July. Survey responses cited rising fuel prices, inflation, the U.S.-Iran conflict and concerns about borrowing costs; most consumers expect higher inflation and anticipate interest rates will rise over the next 12 months. Other surveys (University of Michigan, EY-Parthenon) and macro data (10-year Treasury yield) cited in the report corroborate weakening sentiment, especially among lower- and moderate-income households.
Consumer Sentiment Rises on Signs of Cooling Inflation
Consumer sentiment rose from a record low in June, increasing about 10% as easing hostilities in the Iran war and lower gas prices eased consumer concerns, according to an index from the University of Michigan. One-year inflation expectations fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in May. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported personal consumption expenditures rose 0.4% in May and 4.1% year-over-year. AAA data shows the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $3.90 from $4.49 (about a 15% decline). University of Michigan survey director Joanne Hsu and Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long cautioned that high prices remain a burden and sentiment remains below pre-war levels.
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