Observed Signal · May 3, 2026 · Analyst Forecast · Source: CNBC Investing · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Positive
Morgan Stanley: Chinese Stocks to Get AI Boost
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the upcoming inclusion of two Chinese AI companies — Knowledge Atlas Technology (operator of Zhipu AI) and MiniMax — into the Hang Seng Tech Index on June 8 will trigger substantial passive inflows, estimated at HK$10.9–15.3 billion (about $1.25–1.75 billion). The bank raised price targets for both listings and said frontier Chinese AI model firms could each earn at least $1 billion in revenue in 2026, more than doubling the following year. Morgan Stanley also noted rising costs to access Chinese AI models (to ~17% of U.S. model prices from ~5% a year earlier) and argued AI is becoming a durable, liquidity-driving force for Hong Kong equity markets amid strong regulatory and IPO activity in tech.
Analyst forecast signals material passive fund flows and index composition changes tied to Chinese AI model companies; important for market liquidity and investor positioning but not an industry‑shifting policy or technical platform release.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Morgan Stanley projects HK$10.9–15.3 billion (≈$1.25–1.75 billion) in passive inflows into the Hang Seng Tech Index from the inclusion of Knowledge Atlas Technology and MiniMax.
- Knowledge Atlas Technology and MiniMax are expected to join the Hang Seng Tech Index on June 8, 2026.
- Morgan Stanley raised Knowledge Atlas's price target to 990 HKD (from 560 HKD) and MiniMax's to 1,100 HKD (from 990 HKD).
- The analysts predict each frontier Chinese AI model company can achieve at least $1 billion in revenue in 2026 and more than double that in 2027.
- Morgan Stanley noted the cost to access Chinese AI models rose to at least 17% of U.S. model prices in Q1 2026, up from about 5% a year earlier.
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Chinese AI Stocks Surge as New Models Hit Market
Chinese AI stocks rose sharply after multiple domestic companies released upgraded or new open-source models and policymakers urged broader AI adoption. Hong Kong-listed Zhipu AI (trading as Knowledge Atlas Technology) jumped nearly 30% after unveiling GLM-5, which the company said improves coding and long-running agent tasks and compares favorably on some benchmarks to Anthropic and Google claims that CNBC could not verify. MiniMax rose after launching M2.5; UCloud Tech, a cloud provider for Zhipu, hit daily limits following the announcements. Other firms including SenseTime, DeepSeek, Ant Group and ByteDance also released model or app updates (including multimodal and video-generation products), fueling investor enthusiasm amid a wider slump in some large Chinese tech stocks. Officials including Premier Li Qiang called for scaled commercial AI adoption and coordination of compute resources.
Goldman Sachs Names Top Chinese AI Model Companies
Goldman Sachs identified three preferred Chinese AI-model companies — Zhipu (Knowledge Atlas), Deepseek and ByteDance — in a research note published July 2026. The bank initiated coverage on Hong Kong-listed Zhipu with a price target of HK$1,880 ($239.83) and highlighted Zhipu’s open-sourced GLM-5.2 model as competitive with Anthropic’s Fable 5. Goldman’s analysts evaluated models on time to market, an "Arena score," valuation and pricing, and noted ByteDance’s strength in AI video generation. The report said Zhipu and DeepSeek outperformed Alibaba, Tencent and Minimax on several metrics. The note also cited recent strong share performance for Zhipu and weak performance for Minimax and other listed peers.
Goldman names China stocks to benefit from AI hardware
Goldman Sachs analysts said China has entered a new phase of exporting AI-related hardware and identified companies with market opportunities ranging from $12 billion to $212 billion by 2030. Goldman highlighted industrial automation and robotics as key areas, naming Hong Kong-listed Estun and Shenzhen-listed Inovance as preferred picks. The bank rated Inovance a "buy" with a 92.90 yuan price target and was neutral on Estun with an 11.80 Hong Kong dollar target. Analysts noted exporters are expanding into Europe and Southeast Asia amid uncertainty over U.S. high-tech import restrictions. China will host the World Robot Conference in Beijing from Aug. 19–23, 2026.
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