Observed Signal · Oct 4, 2026 · Market Update · Source: Trending Topics (DACH/CEE Innovation & Tech) · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Negative
IPO Winter at Wall Street: All Eyes on Anthropic
The IPO market is experiencing a severe slowdown despite record overall volumes, with many companies postponing or canceling their listings. The primary cause is investor focus on Anthropic's upcoming IPO, expected in mid-November, which is overshadowing other candidates. Notable postponements include EG Group, Oura, SB Energy, Holtec, and Bamboo Insurance. OpenAI has pushed its IPO to 2027. While mega-deals like SpaceX's $86B IPO and SK Hynix's $26.5B listing drove high proceeds, tech listings are trading 23% below first-day prices on average, indicating post-IPO performance concerns. The slowdown is global, affecting Europe and Asia, with companies like Waterstones and AS Watson delaying plans. The article highlights a disconnect between record index levels and the reluctance of companies to go public, as investors remain cautious about AI valuations.
The IPO drought at Wall Street, driven by the anticipation of Anthropic's IPO and broader market caution, is significant for the AdTech/AI industry as it signals a cooling of tech valuations and could impact funding for AI startups, which are increasingly relevant to advertising technology solutions.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Anthropic's IPO is expected in mid-November, with investors hoping for a valuation of over $2 trillion.
- OpenAI has postponed its IPO to 2027, and EG Group has also postponed its IPO to 2027, targeting a $9 billion valuation.
- Q3 2026 saw 367 IPOs globally, raising $93.3 billion, a 79% increase in volume year-over-year, but US IPOs fell to 24 from 65 the prior year.
- SpaceX's IPO in June raised a record $86 billion.
- Tech IPOs are trading 23% below first-day prices on average, reflecting concerns about AI valuations and market volatility.
Connected Companies & Entities
6 Entities mapped“Anthropic, dessen Geldgeber auf eine Bewertung von mehr als 2 Billionen Dollar hoffen, soll erst Mitte November nach den US-Zwischenwahlen a...”
“OpenAI hat seinen Börsengang auf 2027 verschoben....”
“Getragen wird das von wenigen Riesendeals wie dem Nasdaq-Listing des Speicherchip-Herstellers SK Hynix mit 26,5 Milliarden Dollar....”
“Dabei war das Jahr für Investmentbanker:innen bisher ein Bombengeschäft, vor allem dank des Börsengangs von SpaceX im Juni, der mit 86 Milli...”
“Laut dem aktuellen IPO-Barometer von EY gingen im dritten Quartal weltweit 367 Unternehmen an die Börse....”
“Possible candidates include the British data center operator Nscale....”
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Anthropic IPO: 10 Stocks to Buy Before Listing
Anthropic has selected Nasdaq for an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion or more, potentially making it the largest IPO in history with a raise of up to $100 billion. The company reported Q2 revenue of $11.5 billion, a 14-fold increase year-over-year, with annualized revenue reaching $65 billion by end of July. Gross margins exceed 80% before revenue sharing and training costs. Bankers have discussed a raise of up to $100 billion, and the company has shared its prospectus with a select group of investors before making it public. The article lists ten stocks to buy before the listing, focusing on companies with existing equity stakes or compute contracts with Anthropic. It also notes a call from Dario Amodei to slow AI model capability improvements, which could affect training compute demand.
Investors Eye $2 Trillion IPO Valuation for Anthropic
Anthropic is reportedly preparing an autumn IPO after filing a confidential SEC application in early June and entering a quiet period, with investors and banks modeling valuations as high as $2 trillion. Reuters and other outlets say those valuations lean on aggressive multi-year revenue forecasts: the company reported a revenue run-rate of roughly $47 billion in May 2026 (up from about $9 billion at end-2025) and projects roughly $190–200 billion for 2028; Q2 2026 guidance included at least $10.9 billion in revenue and $559 million operating profit. Banks are using comparables such as Palantir, Cloudflare and SpaceX and high revenue multiples to price the deal. Anthropic faces regulatory and operational risks—U.S. export controls briefly halted distribution of Fable 5 and Mythos 5—and other challenges including a Pentagon legal dispute, competition from lower-cost Chinese models, infrastructure costs, and reported talks to acquire Decart for about $6 billion.
Anthropic Eyes Historic Mega IPO
Anthropic is reportedly preparing for one of the largest technology IPOs, with the Financial Times noting the startup has begun formal steps to explore a listing. The move could reshape the AI competitive landscape as Anthropic competes with OpenAI, Google, and others. The Financial Times reports that Anthropic has hired the law firm Wilson Sonsini to guide a potential IPO, a firm that previously advised Google, LinkedIn, and Lyft on listings. Investors indicate Microsoft and Nvidia have committed tens of billions in a private financing round supporting a possible valuation above $300 billion. The company is also expanding its infrastructure, planning around $50 billion in new data centers in Texas and New York and growing its international staff. Krishna Rao, a former Airbnb executive, has been recruited to lead IPO efforts. Timing remains uncertain, and talks with banks are described as informal.
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