Observed Signal · Oct 30, 2026 · Analysis · Source: https://martech.org/feed/ · Impact: 2/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
How to test incrementality before peak spending starts
The article from MarTech provides guidance on conducting incrementality tests (holdout tests) before peak spending periods like Cyber Week. It states that channels reporting high revenue may not drive actual incremental sales, and explains methods such as geo holdouts and code holdouts to measure true channel impact. Key recommendations include holding out 20-30% of traffic, running tests for four to eight weeks, and ensuring a clean control group. The article emphasizes moving from ROAS to incremental ROAS (iROAS) and avoiding over-crediting last-click channels. It references Adobe's record $44.2 billion Cyber Week spending and Nielsen research that shows only 38% of marketers look at every channel, highlighting the need for disciplined testing before major budget allocation.
The article provides actionable guidance on incrementality testing, which is crucial for optimizing media budgets during peak seasons. It references industry data and best practices, but it does not announce a specific corporate event or product launch, so its direct impact on the AdTech industry is moderate.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Adobe reported $44.2 billion in online spending during Cyber Week 2025.
- Nielsen found 84% of teams can prove ROI, but only 38% look at every channel.
- The article recommends holding out 20-30% of traffic and running tests for four to eight weeks.
- Cyber 5 (Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday) accounted for 21.5% of November and December revenue for some brands.
- Content and PR channels typically land early in the purchase path, making last-click attribution inadequate.
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
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