Observed Signal · Nov 6, 2026 · Recognition · Source: Gründerszene (DACH Startups & Scaleups) · Impact: 1/5 · Sentiment: Negative
German Investor Misses Anthropic Deal: €500K Would Be €167M
Enrico Mellis, venture partner at Lakestar and founder of Animal Syndication, reveals he passed on an early investment opportunity in Anthropic. He and a group of angel investors were offered secondary shares from FTX's holdings at a $3 billion valuation, with a minimum ticket of €500,000. They declined due to a confusing pitch deck, OpenAI's then-high valuation of $8-10 billion, and the sketchy FTX context. Mellis calculates that if Anthropic goes public at a $2 trillion valuation, the €500,000 would have grown to approximately €167 million after accounting for 50% dilution. He reflects on the lesson learned: to distinguish between doubts about the company itself and doubts about the deal's presentation.
This article is a personal retrospective on a missed investment opportunity by a German investor. It provides insight into early-stage AI investment decisions but does not announce any new corporate event or industry-shifting news. It is relevant to the AdTech/AI ecosystem only as context on investor behavior.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Enrico Mellis is a venture partner at Lakestar and founder of Animal Syndication.
- Mellis and angel investors were offered secondary shares in Anthropic at a $3 billion valuation.
- The minimum ticket was €500,000 for shares from FTX's holdings.
- Mellis declined the investment due to a confusing deck, OpenAI's high valuation, and FTX context.
- If Anthropic IPOs at $2 trillion, the €500,000 would have yielded ~€167 million after 50% dilution.
Connected Companies & Entities
“Anthropic is the AI startup behind Claude, valued at $965 billion, in which Mellis passed on an early investment.”
“Enrico Mellis is a venture partner at Lakestar.”
“OpenAI was mentioned as being valued at $8-10 billion at the time, which influenced the decision.”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Anthropic $50B raise could value company at $900B+
Anthropic is soliciting investor allocations for a private financing expected to be roughly $50 billion and could close within two weeks, according to sources. The company has been targeting a valuation near $900 billion, and strong demand from investors could push the final price higher. Some earlier backers (notably those who invested in 2024 or earlier) are reportedly skipping this round and may wait to sell shares in an anticipated IPO later this year. Anthropic says its fundraising will support large-scale computing needs; the company recently reported an annual revenue run rate above $30 billion, with sources placing it closer to $40 billion. Anthropic’s prior round in February valued the company at $380 billion; at a $900 billion valuation it would exceed OpenAI’s recent $852 billion post-money mark.
Anthropic’s Rise Spurs Investor Doubts About OpenAI
TechCrunch reports that some investors are questioning OpenAI’s $852 billion private valuation as Anthropic’s rapid growth reshapes investor sentiment. According to the Financial Times, Anthropic’s annualized revenue rose from $9 billion at the end of 2025 to $30 billion by the end of March 2026, and the company carries a roughly $380 billion valuation. Secondary-market demand for Anthropic shares has reportedly outpaced demand for OpenAI, and one investor said justifying OpenAI’s latest round would require assuming an IPO valuation of $1.2 trillion or more. Iconiq Capital partner Roy Luo, who has invested heavily in Anthropic, contrasted positions; OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar pointed to the company’s $122 billion raise as proof of ongoing investor confidence.
Anthropic Declines VC Offers Valuing It at $800B+
Anthropic has reportedly rebuffed venture capital offers that would value the company at $800 billion or more, according to Bloomberg and TechCrunch. The startup, maker of the Claude family of models, previously raised a $30 billion round at a $380 billion valuation and faces large capital needs — including reported commitments of $50 billion for data centers, $30 billion for Microsoft cloud services, and ongoing multi‑billion dollar AWS spend. Investors are reportedly encouraged by Anthropic’s rising revenue (cited as $30 billion by end of March, up from $9 billion at end of 2025) and strong secondary‑market demand for its shares. Anthropic declined to comment. The situation could change if Anthropic opts to raise capital on favorable terms that would potentially exceed its prior valuation or rival OpenAI’s $852 billion post‑money valuation from February.
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