Observed Signal · Oct 27, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: Retail-News · Impact: 3/5 · Sentiment: Negative
German insolvencies to hit highest level since 2013
German corporate insolvencies are expected to rise by 8% to around 25,900 cases in 2026, the highest level since 2013, according to a forecast by credit insurer Allianz Trade. The sectors most affected include transport and logistics, construction, hospitality, and the automotive and machinery industries. Allianz Trade had previously predicted a rise of only 2-4% for 2026. For 2027, the number is expected to remain stable, with a decline of 5% to about 24,600 cases forecast for 2028, provided economic conditions improve and government stimulus measures take effect. Globally, insolvencies are projected to increase by 5% in 2026 and another 1% in 2027, marking five consecutive years of growth. High interest rates, energy costs, and geopolitical uncertainties are cited as major drivers. Some 2.7 million jobs worldwide are at risk, with Germany accounting for 239,000.
The rise in corporate insolvencies signals economic strain that could reduce advertising budgets and increase payment defaults for publishers and ad tech vendors, impacting the retail and e-commerce sectors.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Allianz Trade forecasts 25,900 corporate insolvencies in Germany for 2026, an 8% increase year-on-year.
- The number of insolvencies is about 30% higher than pre-pandemic levels and 85% higher than in 2021.
- For 2027, the number is expected to remain stable, with a 5% decline to around 24,600 cases in 2028.
- Globally, insolvencies are expected to rise by 5% in 2026 and another 1% in 2027, leading to five consecutive years of growth.
- Around 2.7 million jobs are at risk worldwide in 2026-2027, including 239,000 in Germany.
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Germany remains Europe's hotspot for major corporate insolvencies
According to Allianz Trade, Germany recorded 33 major corporate insolvencies (companies with annual revenues over €50 million) in the first half of 2026, a 10% increase year-over-year. This follows a record year in 2025 with 94 such cases. The automotive industry led with seven insolvencies, followed by retail with five. Germany accounted for about 30% of Western European large insolvencies in the past four quarters, with 97 cases, ahead of France (69), Italy (62), and the UK (45). Globally, large insolvencies rose 13% in H1 2026, with retail the most affected sector. Allianz Trade expects no sustained improvement, warning of risks to supply chains.
Major Insolvencies in Germany Remain High
Germany's number of large corporate insolvencies remained elevated in Q2 2026. FalkenSteg's '5-nach-12' report records 105 insolvency filings by companies with annual revenue above €10 million in Q2 (nearly unchanged from Q1's 104 and about 12% above last year). In H1 2026 there were 209 filings (roughly 4% fewer year-on-year), while Q2 sits ~40% above the five-year average. The wave has shifted toward larger firms (cases for companies with >€100m revenue rose from 7 to 12). Regular insolvency proceedings dominated (81 of 105), self-administration and protection-shelf procedures fell, and ESUG-enabled restructurings are at an eight-year low. Of 70 completed procedures, 45 (64%) resulted in company continuations, with asset deals the most common outcome. Average procedure duration lengthened to 8.2 months, raising concerns about value erosion and longer recovery timelines.
Corporate Insolvencies Remain Exceptionally High in July
The IWH insolvency trend shows that corporate insolvencies in Germany remained at an exceptionally high level in July 2026. The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) recorded 1,689 insolvencies of partnerships and corporations in July — a 1% decrease from June, 7% higher than July 2025 and 75% above the pre-COVID July average. IWH early indicators reached a new peak in July, suggesting elevated insolvency pressure will persist in the coming months. Business-related services and financial/insurance services reached their highest insolvency numbers since 2020, while the hospitality sector saw fewer cases than usual. More than 13,000 jobs were affected by the largest 10% of insolvencies in July.
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