Observed Signal · Feb 26, 2026 · Earnings Report · Source: Linas Newsletter · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Circle's $75B Stablecoin Empire; Revolut Eyes $150B IPO
A fintech newsletter analyzes Circle's Q4 and full-year 2025 results and considers Revolut's valuation trajectory. Circle reported FY25 revenue of $2.75 billion (up 64% YoY), issuance of $75.3 billion in USDC, and exceptionally high on-chain activity (reported $11.9 trillion in Q4 alone). The newsletter highlights that ~96% of Circle’s revenue is driven by interest on T‑bill reserves, exposing the firm to Federal Reserve rate moves despite rapid USDC circulation growth. Circle’s stock has fallen roughly 75% from its post-IPO high and implies a market cap near $20 billion. Separately, the author argues Revolut is building toward a very large IPO valuation (discussed in the range of ~$100B–$150B) and notes its AI adoption, but the piece’s primary event is Circle’s earnings release and its risk/reward profile given rate sensitivity and scale.
This is an earnings report showing large revenue and USDC scale plus a critical dependency on interest income (T‑bills). That combination affects stablecoin rails, payments settlement dynamics and fintech valuations, making it material to fintech and payments infrastructure stakeholders.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Circle reported FY25 revenue of $2.75 billion, up 64% year-over-year.
- Circle issued $75.3 billion worth of USDC and USDC circulation was compounding at ~72% YoY (per the newsletter).
- Circle processed approximately $11.9 trillion in on-chain transaction volume in Q4 2025, according to the newsletter.
- About 96% of Circle’s revenue comes from interest on T‑bill reserves, making results highly sensitive to Federal Reserve interest rates.
- Circle’s stock traded around $80 (≈75% below its ~ $250 all-time high), implying a market capitalization near $20 billion.
Connected Companies & Entities
2 Entities mappedRelated Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Revolut Chases $150B IPO; Robinhood Lists VC Fund
A fintech newsletter reports two industry-significant developments. Revolut is conducting staged secondary share sales to ratchet its valuation from $45B (2024) to $75B (2025) and toward a targeted $150B IPO, with oversubscribed rounds anchored by firms including Coatue, Fidelity, Andreessen Horowitz, T. Rowe Price and Nvidia’s venture arm. Revolut projects £4.1 billion ($5.5 billion) revenue for 2025 and was chosen as one of four firms to test a pound-denominated stablecoin in the UK regulator’s sandbox. Separately, Robinhood filed to list a closed-end venture fund on the NYSE under ticker RVI, targeting $1 billion at $25/share; the fund holds stakes in Databricks, Revolut, Airwallex, Ramp, Oura and others, includes a post-close commitment to buy $14.6M in Stripe secondaries, charges a 2% management fee (halved initially) and carries no performance carry. Both moves could reshape IPO pricing mechanics and retail access to venture exposure.
Revolut's £1.3B Profit Signals Banking Ambition
The newsletter highlights two major fintech developments: (1) broad industry alignment around the Universal Commerce Protocol (UCP) — with Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Salesforce and Stripe joining a tech council alongside founding members such as Google, Shopify and Wayfair — marking a de facto standard for agentic commerce after Stripe abandoned its rival Agentic Commerce Protocol. Tests of instant agent-driven checkout showed low conversion (≈1.18%) and high abandonment. (2) Institutional coverage of Revolut following its FY25 results: revenue £4.5B, net profit £1.3B, deposits £36B and a low loan-to-deposit profile (≈6%). J.P. Morgan and UBS reports emphasise Revolut’s high profitability driven by fees/subscriptions and the optionality of scaled lending now enabled by an unrestricted UK banking licence (March 2026) and a pending U.S. bank charter application (filed March 2026).
Revolut Confirms Dual IPO on Nasdaq and LSE
Revolut's co-founder and CEO Nik Storonsky confirmed plans for a dual IPO on both the Nasdaq and the London Stock Exchange. The company is currently valued at $115 billion privately, with internal targets of $150B to $200B at listing. The announcement comes after years of Storonsky criticizing London's market as 'irrational,' and the article analyzes why London is considered the 'best available deal' rather than a true vote of confidence. The piece also discusses Wise's LSE-to-Nasdaq migration as a precedent, and separately covers Meta's launch of its 'Muse' connector, positioning Meta as a potential 'App Store for Agentic Commerce' following its acquisition of Stilla. The newsletter includes bonus content on Revolut's recent data breach and reasons for bullishness on the fintech.
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