Observed Signal · Jul 17, 2026 · Regulation · Source: CNBC Technology · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
ASML Balances China Sales Amid U.S.-China AI Feud
ASML is navigating growing demand from China while facing U.S. political pressure to tighten export controls on chipmaking equipment. The company’s CFO Roger Dassen said China will contribute around 20% of ASML’s 2026 revenue, after China accounted for €2.9 billion (about 16%) of sales in the first half of 2026. ASML does not ship its most advanced EUV machines to China but sells some DUV lithography tools there. U.S. lawmakers have petitioned executive officials and introduced the MATCH Act to restrict China’s access to chipmaking technology, a move analysts warn could affect ASML’s future orderbook. The story sits at the intersection of AI-driven chip demand and geopolitics.
ASML is a critical supplier of chipmaking equipment; U.S. export-control proposals (including the MATCH Act) could materially alter global semiconductor supply chains and AI hardware availability, with broad consequences across tech industries.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- ASML expects China to contribute around 20% of its net sales across 2026, CFO Roger Dassen said.
- ASML recorded €2.9 billion in sales in China in the first six months of 2026, roughly 16% of total revenue.
- ASML raised its guidance for the second time in 2026 and reported stronger-than-expected quarterly results.
- ASML does not ship extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines to China but sells some deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines there.
- U.S. lawmakers petitioned executive officials and tabled the MATCH (Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware) Act, proposing stricter export controls on chipmaking tools to China.
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ASML Raises 2026 Guidance on Strong AI Chip Demand
ASML raised its 2026 net sales guidance to €36–40 billion after beating first-quarter estimates, reporting Q1 net sales of €8.8 billion and net profit of €2.8 billion versus LSEG consensus of €8.5 billion and €2.5 billion. CEO Christophe Fouquet attributed the upgrade to sustained AI-related chip demand and customers accelerating capacity expansion. ASML said 51% of net sales of its new tools in Q1 went to memory, with customers in South Korea accounting for 45% of sales, Taiwan 23%, and China 19% (down from 36% the prior quarter). The company did not disclose order numbers this quarter but said order intake remains very strong. ASML noted export restrictions limit shipments of its most advanced machines to China and signaled a possible 2027 delivery plan for low-NA EUV units.
ASML Raises 2026 Guidance Amid AI Chip Boom
ASML reported stronger-than-expected second-quarter results driven by high demand for AI chips and raised its full-year 2026 revenue guidance again. Q2 revenue was €9.3 billion and net profit €2.9 billion, above analyst expectations of €8.8 billion and €2.6 billion respectively. CEO Christophe Fouquet said customers are accelerating capacity expansion, and ASML now expects 2026 revenue of €43–45 billion (previously €36–40 billion; earlier raised in April from €34–39 billion). ASML’s unique position as the sole supplier of EUV lithography systems for advanced AI semiconductors and strong orders from customers such as TSMC, Samsung, Micron — with Intel lined up as first user of a new systems generation — underpin the outlook, though tighter U.S. export controls on sales to China remain an uncertainty.
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