Observed Signal · Jul 24, 2026 · Exclusive Research / Newsletter Analysis · Source: Manager Magazin · Impact: 4/5 · Sentiment: Neutral
Anthropic Outpaces OpenAI in the AI Race
Manager Magazin’s Tech Update (24 July 2026) reports that Anthropic has pulled ahead of OpenAI in the current AI race: its powerful supermodel Fable is kept restricted while the company grows revenue and investor valuations that already exceed OpenAI’s. The newsletter’s investigation highlights strategic, commercial and communication differences between the firms and examines market pressures from China-based open‑source models. The edition also covers related tech and policy items: AMD has signed a multi‑billion chip and investment deal with Anthropic; the EU fined Google €890 million under the Digital Markets Act; Revolut’s valuation rose to $115 billion amid employee share sales; a security incident at Hugging Face was later traced to OpenAI testing; and German political figures (Christian Lindner) and major e‑commerce players (Zalando, About You) featured in separate business stories. The piece is presented as an exclusive newsletter analysis by Sarah Heuberger and colleagues.
Reports that Anthropic is outperforming OpenAI and AMD’s direct investment into Anthropic could shift AI infrastructure dynamics; additionally, the EU’s €890M DMA fine against Google is a notable regulatory development affecting major platform behaviour.
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Key Takeaways & Evidence Grounding
- Anthropic’s large model Fable is described as very powerful and is being released to the public only in a reduced form.
- Investors are reported to value Anthropic higher than OpenAI according to the newsletter’s research.
- AMD has entered a multi‑billion chip and investment agreement with Anthropic, marking a direct investment by AMD into an AI company.
- The EU Commission imposed a €890 million fine on Google for alleged Digital Markets Act (DMA) violations.
- Hugging Face reported a major security incident; OpenAI later acknowledged the attack stemmed from its own testing.
Connected Companies & Entities
9 Entities mapped“Investors already value Anthropic higher than OpenAI — for Altman this is a nightmare in real time....”
“In the AI race, OpenAI seems to be copying not only the business strategy (focus on enterprise customers) from its big rival Anthropic, but ...”
“Nik Storonsky, Revolut chief, let employees sell their own shares, pushing the start‑up’s valuation up to $115 billion....”
“The EU Commission sanctioned the tech giant Google and imposed a fine of €890 million for violations of the Digital Markets Act (DMA)....”
“Hugging Face reported a large‑scale attack on its platform; later OpenAI admitted the attack originated from its own tests....”
“AMD is investing in Anthropic via a multi‑billion chip and investment deal; according to CEO Lisa Su this is AMD’s first direct entry into a...”
“Zalando plans to cut another 200 jobs in Berlin and is reorganizing its European logistics after the About You acquisition....”
“Financiers for the unnamed wealth‑management start‑up include Atomico among others....”
“Global Founders Capital is listed among the financiers for the new wealth‑management start‑up....”
Ontology Mapping & Concepts
Related Market Signals & Shifts
Recent verified developments and strategic activity across this market segment.
Anthropic Overtakes OpenAI as Hottest AI Upstart
Anthropic has accelerated ahead of OpenAI in the frontier AI model race, more than doubling its revenue from Q1 to Q2 while OpenAI’s revenue rose about 18% and its operating margins worsened, the Wall Street Journal reported. Reuters reported that Anthropic projects as much as $200 billion in 2028 revenue versus OpenAI’s $47 billion run rate disclosed in May. Analysts say the shift could reshape partner and supplier dynamics: companies tied to OpenAI (Oracle, CoreWeave, Broadcom, SoftBank) may face downside while cloud and chip providers tied to Anthropic (Google/Alphabet, Amazon) could benefit because Anthropic sources most compute from Google and Amazon. Market observers note interoperability via open-weight models and the potential for commoditization of frontier AI, but most do not expect OpenAI to disappear. The story is framed as market analysis with implications for stocks and industry supply chains.
Anthropic vs OpenAI: Pre‑IPO BigAI Showdown
The article analyzes the pre‑IPO competition between Anthropic and OpenAI, highlighting major funding rounds, growth trajectories and product cadence. It reports Anthropic closed a $30 billion round while OpenAI is nearing a reported $100 billion round; Nvidia is reportedly in talks to invest up to $30 billion in OpenAI at a $730–$850 billion pre‑money valuation. Revenue projections and customer metrics from third parties (Epoch AI, Ramp) suggest Anthropic may outpace OpenAI in ARR by late 2026, supported by faster historical growth and recent model releases (Anthropic Sonnet 4.6, Google Gemini 3.1 Pro). The piece cites Ramp data showing high customer overlap (79% of Anthropic customers were already OpenAI customers), low churn (~4%), and growing dual adoption (16% of businesses pay for both). It also discusses agentic AI, Model Context Protocol (MCP), and profitability timelines (Anthropic possibly profitable by 2028; OpenAI possibly by 2031).
OpenAI overtakes Anthropic in AI developer spend for first time in 2.5 years
According to a Substack newsletter, OpenAI has surpassed Anthropic in combined developer AI spending on OpenRouter, a major AI routing platform, for the first time in over 2.5 years. The shift occurred within about two weeks, driven by a July price war and a September model launch. Anthropic had led the spending share since February 2024. The article also discusses implications for API-layer lock-in and future market dynamics. The newsletter also covers other topics, including OpenAI's partnership with Shopify and a UK payments initiative.
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