magnalister

Ad Market Set for Growth Despite Economic Challenges

Even amid economic uncertainty, the ad market is primed for growth. Magna's global ad forecast shows total revenue for media owners rising to $979 billion in 2025, up 4.9% from 2024. Growth is concentrated in search and retail media, which Magna expects to expand 8% to $359 billion as new formats like short-form video and digital out-of-home gain traction. Traditional media owners, including radio and publishing, are forecast to decline about 3% from 2024, with overall revenue flat when major events are not counted. The IMF's 2025 global growth outlook has been trimmed from 3.3% to 2.8% due to policy shifts, with Canada, Mexico, and Japan more exposed than the US. Automotive remains uncertain, with Magna projecting a 2% global decline in 2025 and a 3% drop in the US, amid price expectations and supply dynamics.

Trump's Tariffs Squeeze Ad Budgets Amid Economic Uncertainty

Trump's announced tariffs – 10% baseline on most countries, with higher rates on China, Vietnam, Taiwan and the EU – are expected to hit advertising budgets broadly. Forecasters had already trimmed US ad spend growth in anticipation of tariff-related weakness; after the latest tariff rounds, Magna and Madison & Wall lowered their projections to 6.3% and 3.6%, respectively, citing tariff-induced uncertainty. Analysts warn the base case is shifting toward a bear case, with inflation and even a recession on the horizon. In industry reactions, CMOs face tighter budgets and must rethink channel mix, while search advertising could be a relative winner. Stellantis reportedly halted production at plants in Mexico and Canada, signaling broader auto-advertising pullbacks. CFOs continue to plan cost cuts (62% expect to cut expenses by Q2 2025), adding pressure on marketing budgets as the political risk around tariffs persists.

Daily Mail Soars; YouTube Shorts Embraces New Metrics

AdExchanger’s Thursday roundup covers two major threads in digital advertising: the Daily Mail’s Mail+ subscription growth and monetization approach, and a platform-wide metric update for YouTube Shorts, alongside Magna’s ad market forecasts. Mail+ reportedly surpassed 250,000 paying readers after its UK launch in 2024 and a February 2025 US/Canada rollout, with only about 5% of articles gated and Mail+ subscribers seeing roughly 80% fewer ads. YouTube will adopt a TikTok-like views metric for Shorts, counting a new view when a video starts and preserving an “engaged views” metric for creators; Shorts reportedly reached 70 billion daily views and more than five trillion total views. Magna projects 2024 US ad spend at $380 billion (up 12.4% YoY; 9.9% excluding cyclical effects), with 2025 non-cyclical growth at 6.3% and publisher ad revenue up 4.3%; CTV ad sales at $46 billion (up 14%), and digital video/audio/search/social/retail at $293 billion (up 9.6%). The digest also notes brand activity on LinkedIn and executive moves in the agency and tech spaces.