Rokt

AI widens ecommerce 'intent gap' after the click

Sponsored by Rokt and published on July 20, 2026, the article argues that generative AI is shifting much of product research and decision-making upstream of retailer sites, creating an "intent gap" — a mismatch between the context shoppers bring into a transaction and the largely static checkout experiences retailers offer. It recommends that retailers treat arrival context as an additional signal (alongside behavioral and transactional data), measure transaction performance by arrival context, and test contextual personalization in cart, checkout and confirmation flows to reduce friction and improve conversions.

Marketers Lose Trust in Measurement Amid Conflicting Signals

Industry figures Zach Epstein (founder of Haus) and Jon Humphrey (GM of Rokt Ads) tell The Drum that marketing measurement is failing because multiple platforms send overlapping data and claim credit for the same conversions. They argue that more data has produced conflicting signals, outdated budget inputs, and attribution that often reflects correlation rather than causation. The pair promote focusing on higher-quality, intent-confirmed environments (the 'Transaction Moment'), continuous incrementality testing and counterfactuals, and independent, causal data as prerequisites for trustworthy AI-driven marketing decisions. Haus claims its platform provides real-time signatures of incremental events to reduce insight-to-action lag.

Performance Marketers Shift From Attribution to Incrementality

The article argues that traditional attribution is weakening as discovery compresses into higher-intent moments driven by AI and fragmented commerce touchpoints. Performance marketers are increasingly prioritizing incrementality — testing whether activity actually causes new revenue — over last-click attribution. Industry research (eMarketer and TransUnion) and practitioner quotes show incrementality rising as a top KPI for retail/commerce buyers. The piece differentiates 'commerce media' (any advertising powered by first-party transaction data across owned touchpoints) from retail media and highlights the 'Transaction Moment' (checkout/confirmation/post-purchase) as a high-signal environment for incrementality tests. Examples cited include Rokt’s partnership with incrementality platform Haus and a Tails.com case (working with Rokt) that drove a 153% uplift in conversion. The article frames the shift as pushing performance teams to evaluate channels by efficiency, provable incremental lift, and long-term customer value.